Dustin Ackley Annotated Four-Stage Drill-Down Stats Analysis
Ratio Analysis
Why these stats? To determine the pattern-template where the hitter fits.
- The interplay of these five ratios helps identify the “type” of hitter.
- Each of the five major plate outcomes is measured as a percentage of plate appearances.
- Ted Williams: good at everything. Note how only very accomplished hitters (Williams; Edgar Martinez) produce both above-average extra-base hits (XBH) and above-average singles.
- The “modern slugger” strikes out a bunch but slugs and walks (Reggie Jackson prototype).
- The “plate skills technician” owns the plate, but doesn’t hit the ball hard very often; relying more on singles (Rod Carew prototype).
- The “random moon-shot guy” whose only real value is a high HR-rate (Miguel Olivo).
- And the “pretty much average” guy (David Bell; though Bell was good at avoiding strikeouts, adding to his value).
- The “+” columns set the 10-year MLB average at 100, and are not park-adjusted.
HR%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
XBH%
|
S%
|
HR%+
|
K%+
|
BB%+
|
XBH%+
|
S%+
| ||
10-year MLB average
|
2.7%
|
18%
|
8.4%
|
7.8%
|
15.5%
| ||||||
The Ultimate
| |||||||||||
Ted Williams
|
5.3%
|
7.2%
|
20.7%
|
11.4%
|
15.7%
|
199
|
160
|
247
|
146
|
101
| |
Modern Slugger
| |||||||||||
Reggie Jackson
|
4.9%
|
22.7%
|
12%
|
9.4%
|
13.2%
|
184
|
74
|
143
|
120
|
85
| |
Plate Skills Technician
| |||||||||||
Rod Carew
|
0.9%
|
9.7%
|
9.7%
|
6.2%
|
22.8%
|
34
|
146
|
116
|
79
|
147
| |
Roid Rage
| |||||||||||
Mark McGwire 92-99
|
9%
|
21.2%
|
19.6%
|
12.5%
|
9.7%
|
338
|
82
|
234
|
160
|
63
| |
Mariner Benchmarks
| |||||||||||
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
5.6%
|
15.7%
|
11.6%
|
10.5%
|
14.1%
|
211
|
113
|
138
|
134
|
91
| |
Edgar Martinez
|
3.6%
|
13.9%
|
14.8%
|
9.7%
|
16.2%
|
135
|
123
|
177
|
124
|
105
| |
Ichiro
|
1.2%
|
9.4%
|
5.9%
|
5.6%
|
24.0%
|
45
|
148
|
70
|
72
|
155
| |
Raul Ibanez
|
3.8%
|
16.4%
|
8.5%
|
9.6%
|
15.4%
|
143
|
109
|
101
|
123
|
99
| |
David Bell
|
2.3%
|
12.8%
|
8%
|
7.6%
|
15.5%
|
86
|
129
|
95
|
97
|
100
| |
Miguel Olivo
|
3.7%
|
26.4%
|
4%
|
8.7%
|
13.9%
|
139
|
53
|
48
|
111
|
90
| |
Willie Bloomquist
|
0.6%
|
15.4%
|
6.3%
|
4.9%
|
20.1%
|
23
|
114
|
75
|
63
|
129
|
Dustin Ackley -- above 10-year MLB average shaded
HR%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
XBH%
|
S%
|
HR%+
|
K%+
|
BB%+
|
XBH%+
|
S%+
| ||
2010 minors
|
1.19%
|
13.46%
|
12.78%
|
8.18%
|
14.65%
|
44
|
125
|
152
|
105
|
95
| |
2011 minors
|
2.72%
|
11.48%
|
16.62%
|
8.76%
|
16.01%
|
101
|
136
|
198
|
112
|
103
| |
2011 MLB
|
1.60%
|
21.01%
|
10.64%
|
7.71%
|
16.49%
|
59
|
83
|
127
|
99
|
106
| |
2012 MLB
|
1.80%
|
18.56%
|
8.83%
|
5.39%
|
15.12%
|
67
|
97
|
105
|
69
|
98
| |
2013 pre-demotion
|
0.58%
|
18.13%
|
7.02%
|
2.92%
|
15.79%
|
22
|
99
|
84
|
37
|
102
| |
2013 minors
|
1.59%
|
11.11%
|
15.08%
|
7.94%
|
22.22%
|
59
|
138
|
180
|
102
|
143
| |
2013 post-demotion
|
1.17%
|
16.02%
|
9.77%
|
7.42%
|
17.97%
|
43
|
111
|
116
|
95
|
116
|
Overall “Plate Value” Analysis
Why these stats? To give a rough evaluation of overall value, taking strikeouts into account.
- Generally, I dislike “one number” stats that try to “put everything” into one stat. But I invented one of my own anyway as a “quick overview” (as opposed to be-all, end-all). I call it Plate Value Index. I like it better than the alternatives because it takes into account the negative value of strikeouts, and also identifies [negatively] hitters dependent on high BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for success.
- “Non-single OBP” is OBP with singles excluded. ISO is SLG with singles excluded. So “non-single OPS” is NSOBP + ISO, or the value of offense from XBH + BB.
- I then subtract K-rate (K/PA) to get PVI.
- The 10-year PVI average is .147. So PVI+ re-scales the PVI with .147 = 100.
- This stat allows a rough-and-ready means to compare hitters of different types. Junior and Edgar = both good. Olivo and Bloomquist = both bad.
- One type of hitter that does not fare well on this measure is the hitter dependent on singles (Carew, Ichiro). Those hitters are dependent on maintaining high BABIP, which, in fact, Carew and Ichiro did. But not everyone will.
- Once again, the “+” columns are based on the 10-year MLB average, and are not park-adjusted.
NSOBP
|
ISO
|
NSOPS
|
PVI
|
NSOBP+
|
ISO+
|
NSOPS+
|
PVI+
| ||
10-year MLB average
|
0.174
|
0.153
|
0.326
|
0.147
| |||||
The Ultimate
| |||||||||
Ted Williams
|
0.325
|
0.29
|
0.615
|
0.543
|
187
|
190
|
189
|
369
| |
Modern Slugger
| |||||||||
Reggie Jackson
|
0.224
|
0.228
|
0.452
|
0.224
|
129
|
149
|
139
|
153
| |
Plate Skills Technician
| |||||||||
Rod Carew
|
0.165
|
0.101
|
0.266
|
0.169
|
95
|
66
|
82
|
115
| |
Roid Rage
| |||||||||
Mark McGwire 92-99
|
0.333
|
0.39
|
0.723
|
0.511
|
191
|
255
|
222
|
348
| |
Mariner Benchmarks
| |||||||||
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
0.229
|
0.254
|
0.483
|
0.326
|
132
|
166
|
148
|
222
| |
Edgar Martinez
|
0.256
|
0.203
|
0.459
|
0.320
|
147
|
133
|
141
|
218
| |
Ichiro
|
0.121
|
0.095
|
0.216
|
0.122
|
70
|
62
|
66
|
83
| |
Raul Ibanez
|
0.184
|
0.195
|
0.379
|
0.215
|
106
|
127
|
116
|
146
| |
David Bell
|
0.166
|
0.139
|
0.305
|
0.177
|
95
|
91
|
93
|
120
| |
Miguel Olivo
|
0.136
|
0.176
|
0.312
|
0.048
|
78
|
115
|
96
|
32
| |
Willie Bloomquist
|
0.119
|
0.075
|
0.194
|
0.041
|
69
|
49
|
60
|
28
|
Dustin Ackley -- above 10-year MLB average shaded
NSOBP
|
ISO
|
NSOPS
|
PVI
|
NSOBP+
|
ISO+
|
NSOPS+
|
PVI+
| ||
2010 minors
|
0.221
|
0.140
|
0.361
|
0.227
|
127
|
92
|
111
|
154
| |
2011 minors
|
0.261
|
0.184
|
0.445
|
0.330
|
150
|
120
|
136
|
225
| |
2011 MLB
|
0.183
|
0.144
|
0.327
|
0.117
|
105
|
94
|
100
|
80
| |
2012 MLB
|
0.143
|
0.102
|
0.245
|
0.059
|
82
|
67
|
75
|
40
| |
2013 pre-demotion
|
0.108
|
0.045
|
0.153
|
-0.028
|
62
|
29
|
47
|
-19
| |
2013 minors
|
0.250
|
0.135
|
0.385
|
0.274
|
144
|
88
|
118
|
186
| |
2013 post-demotion
|
0.174
|
0.119
|
0.293
|
0.133
|
100
|
78
|
90
|
91
|
Plate Skills (On-Base) Analysis
Why these stats? To assess ability to reach base and avoid outs.
- The two main parts of the game are “getting on base” (avoiding outs) and “producing offense” (leading to runs), which combine into the “OBP” and “SLG” parts of OPS.
- For this first part, I look at OBP and non-singles OBP (from XBH + BB).
- I also invented a stat I call “Plate Skills Advantage,” which is an arbitrary number where zero indicates an OBP roughly equal to BABIP. A hitter makes his OBP higher than BABIP by walking and by hitting the ball hard or over the fence; lower, by striking out instead of putting the ball in play. In this measure, a walk and a HR are worth the same (+.702), because they both result in a plate appearance with an “OBP” of 1.000 (thus a “+” over 10-year average BABIP [which is .298] of .702). A strikeout is -.298 since it drops the “OBP” of that plate appearance from .298 to .000.
- Finally, it is important to determine a hitter’s “normal” BABIP. Although a lot of variation is BABIP is random, each hitter, I believe, has a “center of gravity” for BABIP. Although it helps to be a left-handed hitter with speed (Ichiro), it also helps to consistently hit the ball hard (Edgar Martinez, Ted Williams).
- Once again, the “+” columns are based on the 10-year MLB average, and are not park-adjusted.
OBP
|
NSOBP
|
PSA
|
BABIP
|
OBP+
|
NSOBP+
|
BABIP+
| ||
10-year MLB average
|
0.329
|
0.174
|
0
|
0.298
| ||||
The Ultimate
| ||||||||
Ted Williams
|
0.482
|
0.325
|
+13.9
|
0.328
|
147
|
187
|
110
| |
Modern Slugger
| ||||||||
Reggie Jackson
|
0.356
|
0.224
|
+2.6
|
0.298
|
108
|
129
|
100
| |
Plate Skills Technician
| ||||||||
Rod Carew
|
0.393
|
0.165
|
+2.1
|
0.359
|
119
|
95
|
120
| |
Roid Rage
| ||||||||
Mark McGwire 92-99
|
0.430
|
0.333
|
+11.0
|
0.270
|
131
|
191
|
91
| |
Mariner Benchmarks
| ||||||||
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
0.370
|
0.229
|
+4.9
|
0.287
|
112
|
132
|
96
| |
Edgar Martinez
|
0.418
|
0.256
|
+6.6
|
0.335
|
127
|
147
|
112
| |
Ichiro
|
0.361
|
0.121
|
-0.4
|
0.344
|
110
|
70
|
115
| |
Raul Ibanez
|
0.338
|
0.184
|
+1.5
|
0.298
|
103
|
106
|
100
| |
David Bell
|
0.320
|
0.166
|
+1.0
|
0.274
|
97
|
95
|
92
| |
Miguel Olivo
|
0.275
|
0.136
|
-4.9
|
0.294
|
84
|
78
|
99
| |
Willie Bloomquist
|
0.320
|
0.119
|
-2.4
|
0.319
|
97
|
68
|
107
|
Dustin Ackley -- above 10-year MLB average shaded
| OBP | NSOBP | PSA | BABIP | OBP+ | NSOBP+ | BABIP+ | ||
| 2010 minors | 0.368 | 0.221 | 3.82 | 0.303 | 112 | 127 | 102 | |
| 2011 minors | 0.421 | 0.261 | 7.96 | 0.324 | 128 | 150 | 109 | |
| 2011 MLB | 0.348 | 0.183 | 0.16 | 0.339 | 106 | 105 | 114 | |
| 2012 MLB | 0.294 | 0.143 | -0.80 | 0.265 | 89 | 82 | 89 | |
| 2013 pre-demotion | 0.266 | 0.108 | -3.08 | 0.25 | 81 | 62 | 84 | |
| 2013 minors | 0.472 | 0.250 | 6.27 | 0.409 | 143 | 144 | 137 | |
| 2013 post-demotion | 0.354 | 0.174 | 0.76 | 0.335 | 108 | 100 | 112 |
Plate Production (Slugging) Analysis
Why these stats? To assess ability to produce offense, and, therefore, runs.
- The second half of the offensive analysis is “production.”
- SLG and ISO (SLG - BA) are generally well-known.
- HR/FB (HR per fly ball) is similar to BABIP in that it is subject to fluctuation, but each hitter has a “natural” gravitation point. The difference between Miguel Olivo’s 11.6% and Willie Bloomquist’s 1.7% is not random.
- I also invented a “summary” stat for production, which I have named “.900 Conversion Rate.” I explained this concept in depth in a post called the “Allegory of the Window.” The idea is to assess how “plausible” it is for a hitter to be a strong offensive contributor. It is a measure of how many “regular” (sometimes I say “random-y”) balls in play a hitter needs to “convert” into singles in order to reach a .900 OPS, once his actual HR, non-HR XBH, walks and strikeouts are taken into account. The lower the “conversion rate,” the more “plausible” it is for a hitter to be a contributor. [You will note, however, that some hitters, like Carew and Ichiro, can reach “implausible” numbers of singles. Most can’t.]
- Once again, the “+” columns are based on the 10-year MLB average, and are not park-adjusted.
SLG
|
ISO
|
HR/FB
|
900Conv
|
SLG+
|
ISO+
|
HR/FB+
|
Conv+
| ||
10-year MLB average
|
0.414
|
0.153
|
7.70%
|
0.370
| |||||
The Ultimate
| |||||||||
Ted Williams
|
0.634
|
0.29
|
0.106
|
153
|
190
|
171
| |||
Modern Slugger
| |||||||||
Reggie Jackson
|
0.49
|
0.228
|
0.298
|
118
|
149
|
120
| |||
Plate Skills Technician
| |||||||||
Rod Carew
|
0.429
|
0.101
|
0.370
|
104
|
66
|
100
| |||
Roid Rage
| |||||||||
Mark McGwire 92-99
|
0.674
|
0.39
|
25.8%
|
0.028
|
163
|
255
|
335
|
192
| |
Mariner Benchmarks
| |||||||||
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
0.538
|
0.254
|
14.6%
|
0.233
|
130
|
166
|
190
|
137
| |
Edgar Martinez
|
0.515
|
0.203
|
9.8%
|
0.255
|
124
|
133
|
127
|
131
| |
Ichiro
|
0.414
|
0.095
|
3.7%
|
0.390
|
100
|
62
|
48
|
95
| |
Raul Ibanez
|
0.471
|
0.195
|
9.9%
|
0.309
|
114
|
127
|
129
|
117
| |
David Bell
|
0.396
|
0.139
|
5.7%
|
0.355
|
96
|
91
|
74
|
104
| |
Miguel Olivo
|
0.417
|
0.176
|
11.6%
|
0.413
|
101
|
115
|
151
|
88
| |
Willie Bloomquist
|
0.346
|
0.075
|
1.7%
|
0.442
|
84
|
49
|
22
|
81
|
Dustin Ackley -- above 10-year MLB average shaded
SLG
|
ISO
|
HR/FB
|
900Conv
|
SLG+
|
ISO+
|
HR/FB+
|
Conv+
| ||
2010 minors
|
0.407
|
0.140
|
0.329
|
98
|
92
|
111
| |||
2011 minors
|
0.487
|
0.184
|
0.259
|
118
|
120
|
130
| |||
2011 MLB
|
0.417
|
0.144
|
4.5%
|
0.381
|
101
|
94
|
58
|
97
| |
2012 MLB
|
0.328
|
0.102
|
5.5%
|
0.424
|
79
|
67
|
71
|
85
| |
2013 pre-demotion
|
0.250
|
0.045
|
0.492
|
60
|
29
|
67
| |||
2013 minors
|
0.500
|
0.135
|
0.313
|
121
|
88
|
115
| |||
2013 post-demotion
|
0.404
|
0.119
|
0.378
|
98
|
78
|
98
|
Bottom line:
Notice how Ackley has yet to get any shaded boxes in the "slugging" category in the major leagues. Minors, yes. Majors, no.
Maybe that kind of production will come later (there's room for upside), but, for now, Ackley's value will come from singles and walks. That's not a bad thing; it's just as good a thing as we were hoping for.
